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In the author’s experience, a model involving only simplistic specifications of factors does not provide sufficiently accurate estimates of winning probabilities. Although time-consuming, the gains are worthwhile. The general thrust of model development is to continually experiment with refinements of the various factors. The best is the one that produces the greatest increase in predictive accuracy when included in the model. Fortunately, the historical data makes the final decision as to which particular definition is superior. COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF TRIALThe author’s guiding principle in factor improvement has been a combination of educated guessing and trial and error. Here is what he writes about fine-tuning your model: Certainly, most people would give up at this point and turn their energy to more fruitful activities. He then ran some backtesting for his model, only to find out that it underperformed the market. After many hours of work Bill Benter has gathered the factors and calculated their correct weightings. Those ranged from the more obvious ones (horse’s form based on its finishing position in previous races) to the more exotic ones, like preferred surface and weather conditions. Trying to invent the perfect model for the racetrack, Benter started digging at data and discovering all the possible factors influencing the outcome of a horse race, which he then combined in a multinomial logit model. The author tests the hypothesis that a fundamental approach to empirically assessing each horse’s chance of winning can find profitable wagering opportunities. And since most of us are quite busy, below I give you a summarized review with (what I thought were) the most intriguing parts of it. It is a prime example of a Fundamental Value Betting strategy that beats the market. Furthermore, even if the paper itself does not guarantee you an edge on the racetrack, it certainly represents a very solid foundation for a model, which you can build upon.īill Benter’s paper represents the rare case of a sharp punter sharing some of his methods so it is certainly worth a detailed read. Nevertheless, I have found the model very elegant in its basics and believe there is something to learn from it for anyone. There has certainly been a myriad of much more sophisticated and advanced models written in the meantime, which could easily beat Bill Benter‘s model on the racetrack. After all, Bill Benter has written it in 1995, more than 20 years ago. ![]() The report is certainly no ticket for millionaire town, even if you do grasp the mathematical details of it, which depending on your prior knowledge might take you some time. COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF PROFESSIONALHe did so by publishing the self-authored paper “ Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”, which has since turned into a classic for all aspiring professional punters. ![]() It’s a fantastic story of dedication and comeback, involves some of the biggest names in the history of gambling and I strongly recommend reading the whole article in Bloomberg.Īpparently, after having made it on the racetrack, Bill Benter has retired from gambling, turned to philanthropy and decided to share with the world some of his secrets. That didn’t stop him and he continued to work on his model, until he finally had an algorithm which secured him substantial returns on the racetrack. While doing so Benter went bankrupt once, needing to return to the United States to look for new financing and got ditched by his business partner. Armed with a strong quantitative background and endless dedication, he was determined to develop a successful betting algorithm and beat the Hong Kong racetracks. Who is Bill Benter? Bill Benter /// Source: īill Benter was a Vegas card counter turned professional horse racing handicapper. This inspired me to dig a bit deeper into Bill Benter’s work and share my findings with you. I have just recently read a very nice and thorough article in Bloomberg Businessweek about Bill Benter, the godfather of horse race betting and one of the most successful punters in the history of gambling. Today we talk about Bill Benter and his algorithm for beating the racetrack. Luckily, I have rediscovered my passion for writing, by coming across a great story that I thought I should share with you. The start of the football season didn’t make things better, since betting turns out to be significantly more profitable than writing about betting, so with hobby time being scarce the choice for me was clear. With the World Cup and the hot summer around, I must admit there were better things to do than writing for my blog. Hello and Happy New Year to everyone! You must have noticed my slow to non-existing pace of publishing articles on this blog recently. ![]()
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